Afternoon Highlights 4.18.24
Highlights
Good Afternoon! Corn and soybeans ended the day lower, and wheat futures saw small gains but we closed off the highs. Overall the market is quiet, and producer engagement is very limited.
Updated NOAA seasonal maps call for an increased probability of above average temps across for most the country when looking at May and the seasonal May/June/July maps. For precipitation, the focus for above average moisture is in the central to southeast states of the US.
The Panama Canal authority plans to pull back restrictions put in place in response to low water levels. On May 16th, they will increase total daily transits by 4 to 31.
As of 2:00 PM CT: DOW down 37 at 37,962, S&P down 19 at 5,043, crude up 12 cents at $82.81, and the US $$ up 176 at 106.127.
Corn
Futures ended the day near the lows in overall lackluster trade. Export sales for 2023/24 came in at 501.2k MT with estimates of 300k-900k MT, and 2024/25 sales were 65k MT with estimates of 0-100k MT. Combined sales were the third lowest of the marketing year. The 4-week drought monitor class change shows many corn growing regions improved and despite what the USDA drought monitor says, the crop moisture index shows a different story. There continues to be chatter of ethanol plants paying premiums over posted bids to get coverage during May. CIF today was a penny stronger through FH May, and then steady for the balance. Barge freight was steady today as well.
Closes: May down 3’4 at 426’6, July down 4’6 at 436’2, September 4’6 at 445’0, and December down 4’6 460’0.
- Ck24/cn24 traded up to 9’0 carry today, we saw a fair amount of long May positions rolling because of the move, we closed at 9’6 carry. Cz24/cz25 up 0’2 at 12’6 carry.
Soybeans
Soybeans were beat up again today, closing near the lows of the day with a few months not far off from contract lows. We head into the week looking at the 5th week in a row of losses with May down close to 40 cents and November down 27 cents for the week. May and July soybean oil made contract lows today. Export sales today showed 485k MT for 2023/24 with estimates of 300k-650k MT and there were no cancellations this week. Sales for 2024/25 were 263k MT with estimates of 250-450k MT. CIF bids today were stronger for May and steady for the balance.
- Closes: May down 15’2 at 1134’2, July down 15’2 at 1149’0, August down 14’4 at 1151’2, and November down 12’0 at 1149’2.
- May meal down .7/ton at $338, soyoi.l down 88 points at 44.12, and May board crush up 3.7 at 94.5 cents.
- Sk24/sn24 steady at 14’6 carry and sx24/sf25 down 0’2 at 12’6 carry.
Wheat
Futures closed higher in the three markets but there wasn’t much to spark the bounce. New crop Mpls wheat traded within a nickel of its contract lows set on April 2nd. HRW areas continue to look at lack of adequate rain for the most part, leaning to the thought we’ll see G/E ratings decrease on Monday. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that producers will seed 5.9 million hectares, below the 5-year average of 6.34 million hectares. Wheat sales today saw cancellations of 93.6k MT for 2023/24, and new crop sales were on the low end of estimates at 222k MT.
- May futures: Mpls up 6’0 at 639’2, KC up 4’4 at 577’2, and Chicago down 0’2 at 536’6.
- New crop 2024: Mpls up 3’2 at 653’2, KC up 6’2 at 575’2, and Chicago up 0’6 at 553’0.
- May/July spreads: Mpls at up 1’0 at 5’0 carry, KC down 2’0 at 1’6 inverse, and Chicago down 0’6 at 16’0 carry